What's Probability Mean? A Taxicab Forecasting Case

What’s the meaning of probability? There are two primary views. The “frequentist” view defines probability as event frequency over repeated trials – if a coin lands heads in 50 out of 100 flips, there’s 50% probability of heads. On the other hand, the Bayesian view defines probability as “strength of belief” in possible outcomes of one trial – how a single geopolitical event unfolds, for example.